Optimism levels in a project
This graph shows how different teams in a company feel that a particular project will be delivered successfully i.e. within schedule, scope and cost.
Disclaimer: This project is entirely fictional and any resemblance to any project – live or abandoned is entirely coincidental
1) Mother-in-law – How’s the food I made, son?
2) Boss – Do you think I am a good boss?
3) Wife – Do I look fat in this?
A huge disclaimer: The above post doesn’t absolutely in any way apply to me. All three people mentioned above for me are wonderful.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep
There’s no reason why I shouldn’t sleep
Dear Mr Frost, now don’t you weep
That your poem has been screwed by this creep
P.S. Really sorry about screwing up this classic poems. It is one of my favourites (along with The Tyger by William Blake) and one which I can recite completely. But I was just overwhelmed by the number of people quoting it left and right.
Water cuts are a way of life in Mumbai. Each year that the met department predicts a normal monsoon, we have water shortages. And BMC cuts or limits supply of water. A water cut has been implemented in our area as well.
The society has given the residents an option of limited timings of water supply or private water tankers. The latter options costs money. And the residents of the society have voted for that option.
So an important question to be asked is how should the payment be distributed? Should it be a flat amount for all flats or should it vary according to the number of residents in each flat? The justification of the latter option is a no-brainer. Larger families are likely to use more water than a family of two individuals.
Now comes the interesting game theory aspect into this problem. People with larger families would oppose the proportionate fee structure while smaller families would oppose a flat fee structure. In each case one of the parties would feel that they have been given a raw deal.
Now assume that the flat fee structure is adopted. This means that the smaller families will be disgruntled since they are paying a per capita higher rate than the larger families. Thus they will indulge in wasteful water usage to compensate for the higher fee. The larger families will use at least an amount minimum to their needs. However its more likely that they would be a little careless in using water as they are being subsidised by the smaller families. Overall this leads to wasteful water usage for the entire society.
Now let’s assume that the variable fee structure is imposed based on the number of residents in each flat. Here the reverse would happen. The larger families would be disgruntled and would spend water in a wasteful manner while the smaller families would use at least the minimum share of the water. Overall this option too leads to a wasteful usage of water.
Both these options seem to result in wastage of water. So what then is the optimal distribution of payment? Is there a better way of distributing water? The best option which comes to my mind is to implement a water meter system which tracks the actual usage of water (which may be of course more cumbersome and expensive to implement)
Let’s see what the society management comes up with. Till then out with the buckets and drums to store all the water.
Posted from my mobile: Please excuse grammar and typos.
UPDATE: Well, my society decided not to get into the nitty-gritties of Game Theory and adopted the first option instead! Limited water supply from now on. So much for trying to explain Game Theory to them.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you must have heard about the SEC case against Goldman Sachs, and in India, about the IPL debacle. I’m reading a book which is a collection of small articles/quotes/sayings about Peter Drucker. And this small paragraph reiterates why he is considered one of the better management thinkers in history. Note: I purposely do not use the superlative “the greatest management thinker”.
A couple of days ago, I ranted about traffic in Mumbai and how a lack of common sense prevents everyone from enjoying a smooth commute. As if on cue, McKinsey Global Institute has released a report on the increasing urbanization of India and how cities are expected to grow rapidly in the near future.
Here are some excerpts from the report. By 2030, in India:-
* 590 million people will live in cities. This is twice the population of the US today
* 70% of net new employment will be generated in cities
* 68 cities will have population of 1 million plus. The whole of Europe has only 35 such cities today.
* 700-900 million sqmetres of commercial and residential space needs to be built. That is equivalent to building a new Chicago or two Mumbais every year!
* 7400km of metros and subways will need to be constructed, which is 20 times the capacity added in the past decade.
* Five large states – Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab will have more people living in cities than in villages.
* Private car ownership would increase, shortcomings in the transportation infrastructure have the potential to create urban gridlock.
* The road transportation gap will rise from 210 thousand lane kms to 440 thousand lane kms. (Yipee, more traffic jams for the same price)
Yes, India’s cities are growing at a rapid pace, and people are migrating to big cities. The most important question now is whether the government is up to it. Is the government going to create PPP models for developing urban infrastructure? Is it going to go the China way by creating SPVs? Or will it twiddle its thumbs while India wastes away its demographic divided? Profound questions the answers to which will be more profound.
PS. Is it ironic that I’m writing this while I’m stuck in a traffic jam?
Click the image for a better view
If there was one single thing which attracted me to this book, it was the cover. A muscular Shiva riddled with battle scars, hiding a trishul behind his back. And of course the title. The Immortals of Meluha. The title itself exudes adventure.
And so I bought the book. How is the book? Well the story is about the adventure of a tribal chieftain from Tibet called Shiva. The story is about his journey to a fabled land called Meluha. The story is about the fight between the Suryavanshis and the Chandravanshis, and a few Nagas thrown in between.
The book shows promise, the story is well-paced and the premise of the story – about a mortal attaining Godhood – is something innovative.
The downside. The book seems written in haste. There are many scenes which the author could have elaborated. If the author would have taken some time to build the character sketches, the story would be more believable. Here all characters seem artificial. Parvateshwar, Daksha, Ayurvati – all seem paper-thin, all of them humble (Shiva included) to the point of being irritating. There are numerous passages where all the characters do is to be modest and heap all the credit on the other person, who then bounces back the credit to the previous person. The battle scenes too are quickly ended (The climactic battle with the Chandravanshis also seems something straight out of 300) It seems to me that a potentially bestseller premise has been wasted, atleast in the first book.
Another jarring aspect of the book was the use of modern terminology – like orientation executive etc to describe some of the characters and events. The author could have used more traditional words to blend in with the story more smoothly.
Having said this, the book is well-written for a debutante. Amish looks promising if he takes time to develop his characters and story. I enjoyed reading the first book of the trilogy. Time will decide if I buy the other two books as well.
Endnote: Ever since I read the first chapter, a niggling thought occupied my mind till the end. I couldn’t exactly understand what it was. When I finished the book and turned to the inside flap, I realized what it was. Amish is a graduate of IIM. Another one bites the dust.
As usual I’m stuck in traffic again. There is a crossing and vehicles are standing in every which direction with no direction. Everyone wants their right of way and no one is willing to wait.
There are a few individuals who have volunteered to steer the traffic and clear the jam but sadly no one listens to them. It is depressing when people are not willing to even make use of a service which is being offered for free.
What then is the solution? The solution given below is paradoxic and that’s why it is so difficult to accept.
“To reach faster, give way.”
This simple statement epitomises what the problem is and also what the solution could be. If everyone wants to be the first, no one eventually will. But if you let the other person make the first move, who knows you may be reaching home first.
But given the collective ‘wisdom’ of crowds, the status quo is probably the way its going to be. People will dismiss this suggestion as idealistic or too much to expect.
Strange are the minds of humans. Willing to overlook the simplest of solutions in search of more complex alternatives.
