The problem with inductive logic

From the book the Black Swan…

Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interests,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.

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3 Responses to The problem with inductive logic

  1. Neha says:

    I like it !! The probablity of every well fed turkey getting shaheed one day before thankgiving = 1 :)

  2. salil says:

    Every year in India, youngsters watch headline MBA placements (2004-2008) and assume salaries are bound to go up 20% each year. Then 2009 comes and they know better…

  3. Nirvana says:

    He he nice one. Don’t know whether to laugh at it or be sad at it considering I was one of the batches of 2009 MBA graduates.

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